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the overall power generation cost.This development ofan considered for comparison. The expected value and the
average power generation cost for the proposed blend, 90% confidence interval of the power generation cost for
allows for a comparison with regional electricity prices and each chain, as determined by Monte Carlo simulations
a subsequent assessment of economic feasibility. are presented in Table 3.
With an average regional electricity price of $0.30 per kWh,
Given the various options for the acquisition of biodiesel, the proposed route is feasible for both of the proposed
two separate scenarios of the proposed chain were scenarios. Not surprisingly, the collaborative approach to
developed and consequently two cost estimate models: implementation is likely to be the more feasible of the two
scenarios. The expected value of the power generation
Scenario 1 – the acquisition of biodiesel at market prices cost is $0.23 per kWh; this is approximately 7 cents less
from an extra-regional supplier; than the regional average.

Scenario 2– a collaborative approach between regional The statistical approach to the cost estimate model not
countries. only allowed for the incorporation of variation in the process
parameters and their influence upon the overall cost, but
In addition, a neat vegetable oil energy chain was regression analyses also led to the identification of the
Energy Alternative Expected Value ($/kWh) 90% Confidence Interval ($/kWh)
Methanol/Vegetable oil – Scenario 1 0.248 0.162 – 0.373

Methanol/Vegetable oil – Scenario 2 0.230 0.137 – 0.366
Vegetable oils route (coconut oil) 0.298 0.167 – 0.477
Table 3: Energy chain expected values

most critical parameters. Based on historical trend data
for the various parameters, the 90% confidence intervals As was mentioned earlier, several Caribbean countries
were determined. For a Scenario 1 implementation of the already produce various liquid biofuels; namely several
proposed chain, the most critical factors are the biodiesel varieties of vegetable oils. The study conducted by the
market price, the power plant heat rate and the cost of the Energy and Security Group (The Energy and Security
vegetable oil, in that order. Accordingly, these three factors Group, 2006) indicated that the three most abundant
are most critical in ensuring a low power generation cost vegetable oil sources in the region are coconut, cottonseed
for the proposed implementation scenario. Similarly, the and corn; with coconut oil having a significantly higher
most influential factors for a Scenario 2 implementation potential than the others. Consequently, the biofuels
are the methanol price, the vegetable oil price and the being considered are in most cases developed locally.
power plant heat rate. The local development of these biofuels removes the
requirement for and the associated costs of shipping; in
A PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION CHAIN addition there are many other local social benefits to be
The geographic location of the Caribbean and its current had. However, current biofuel production levels within the
regional countries are lower than what would be required
industrial characteristics are key supporting factors for to support the local power generation fuel requirements. It
the proposed alternative chain. Trinidad and Tobago is would therefore require a boosting of the local production
one of the world’s leading producers of methanol and capacities to fulfil the local power generation market
has the production capacity to supply the requirements needs.
of other Caribbean countries, making it an ideal point for
the distribution of methanol within the region. As such, The other key component of the chain involves the
this work proposes Trinidad and Tobago as the primary acquisition of biodiesel. The local development of biodiesel
source and supplier of the methanol necessary for the is likely the preferred option; however, regional biodiesel
alternative power generation route. Accordingly, the production is in the nascent stages. Consequently,
various transportation modes would involve transportation biodiesel production facilities with increased capacity will
from Trinidad and Tobago to the other Caribbean have to be developed. This work proposes three options.
countries. Notwithstanding this, the Caribbean is also The first option involves the development of biodiesel
located relatively close to many natural gas and methanol production facilities within the respective countries. In this
producing countries within South and Central America. As option, each country will invest in the development of a
such, methanol originating from these countries presents local biodiesel production facility, which meets its specific
an added alternative.
needs. The fuel requirements of an individual country
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